Although it is yet uncertain who will be the next president of the United States, American University professor Allan Lichtman has predicted that Donald Trump will win.
Since 1984, Lichtman is believed to have correctly predicted the winners of the US presidential elections.
Allan Lichtman has a list of criteria he uses to determine who will win. These criteria are called Keys to the White House.
The 13 keys to determining the next president, according to Lichtman’s book are:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10 Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
These Keys are true or false questions which were gotten from watching presidential elections from 1860 to 1980. A true answer favors the re-election of the incumbent party. If six or more are false, the incumbent party loses, if fewer than six are false the incumbent party wins.
Five keys down, Trump will win
Key 1 is the party mandate – how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed.
Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running.
Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act.
Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success.
And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt.
He adds that the deal breaker is Key number 4. As Libertarian party nominee Gary Johnson gains momentum, the scale might tip against the democrats.
Most difficult election to predict
Allan Lichtman admits that this is the most difficult election to predict.
In an interview with the Washington Post, he said:
“Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.”
He states that this election could go either way as Trump could “defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor.”
Lichtman also firmly adds that his predictions are not an endorsement, citing that he has correctly predicted wins for democrats and republicans.